Council Elections in Wales — beyond the headlines

Mike Hedges MS

The headlines are straight forward Labour gained sixty-eight seats, the independents gained six seats, Liberal democrats gained ten seats, Greens gained eight, the Conservatives lost eighty-six and Plaid Cymru lost six.

In terms of council control Labour gained Bridgend and Blaenau Gwent but lost Neath Port Talbot. Plaid Cymru gained Ceredigion, Ynys Mon, and Carmarthenshire. The Conservatives lost Monmouthshire.

These are the headline results, but such results obscure the local changes that have taken place. This was not a referendum on the Conservative Government at Westminster or on the Welsh Government in Cardiff.

Three things effect voters in local elections which are their view of the parties, their view of the Council and their view about the candidates. The smaller the ward, the more important the candidate is because a higher percentage of the electorate will know them.

It was a good election for the Labour party in winning not only the sixty-eight additional seats but overall control of eight councils. In Monmouthshire Labour gained twelve seats, eleven seats in the Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff sixteen seats, Blaenau Gwent nine seats, Conwy five seats, Denbighshire eight seats and Rhondda Cynon Taff eleven seats.

It was a good election for Plaid Cymru in winning the three west Wales councils that they previously ran as a minority administration as well as consolidating control of Gwynedd. Gaining seven seats on the isle of Anglesey and four seats in Wrexham.

It was a good election for the Independents winning seats in Flintshire, gaining seven seats in Neath Port Talbot, holding fifteen seats in Merthyr, and holding the balance of power in a number of councils.

It was a good night for the green party gaining eight seats across Wales. It was a good night for the Liberal Democrats who won ten seats in Powys, becoming the largest group on the Council, and gaining four seats in Swansea.

It was a bad election for Labour in Neath Port Talbot where they lost ten seats and control of the council doing badly in Neath, Neath valleys and the Swansea valley, losing four seats in Caerphilly, failing to win Merthyr, and losing three seats in Swansea.

It was a bad election for Plaid Cymru losing nine seats in Rhondda Cynon Taff, losing four seats in Pembrokeshire, and having no representation on several councils.

It was a bad election for the Independents ceasing to be the largest party in Powys and losing seats in Carmarthenshire, Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd, and Ceredigion.

It was a bad election for the Liberal Democrats without representation on a number of Council’s in Wales including Bridgend that they had minority control until 2012.

It was a bad election for the Conservatives especially where they were directly opposed by Labour in Monmouthshire losing control and the Vale of Glamorgan they did very badly.

What were realistic expectations of the parties prior to the election

Labour to hold the seven councils they had majority control and to win Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, and Merthyr. Labour lost control of Neath Port Talbot and failed to gain Merthyr.

Plaid Cymru to hold Gwynedd and win the Isle of Anglesey, Ceredigion, and Carmarthenshire; also, to make gains in the south Wales valleys. Whilst they took the four west Wales councils, they lost seats in the south Wales valleys.

Liberal Democrats to become the largest party in Powys and to reverse their losses along the south Wales coast. Whilst Powys was a success, they failed to make significant gains across the south Wales coast.

For the Independents to hold Pembrokeshire, Merthyr, Blaenau Gwent, and Powys, make gains across Wales and reverse their decline in west Wales. Whilst they held Pembrokeshire and “drew Merthyr,” they lost Blaenau Gwent and ceased to be the largest party in Powys, with their decline in west Wales continuing.

For the Conservatives to hold Monmouthshire and become the largest party in Denbighshire and the Vale of Glamorgan. All three failed with Labour now the largest party on all three Councils.

Local issues matter, an unpopular labour council in Neath Port Talbot and an unpopular independent council in Blaenau Gwent both saw substantial losses for the previous ruling party.

Local candidates’ matter, including where you live and the local popularity of sitting councillors. This can be seen by results in places as diverse as Dinas Powys, Clydach in Swansea and the Amman valley.

In summary overall a good result for Labour but not a 1995 type result with two hundred less seats won. For the Conservatives, had a very poor election but again not 1995 winning seventy-one seats more. The overall results for the Liberal Democrats and Independents were similar and Plaid Cymru gained eighty-nine seats more.

Finally, we must always remember that local elections are primarily about local candidates and who controls the local council, it is not a referendum on Governments.

Mike Hedges id the Senedd member for Swansea Easr