“Please remember we exist” — What Brexit means for Wales — Hollie Wickens
Brexit poses a threat to the United Kingdom. That is something we now hear a lot, whether it’s in reference to Scotland being dragged out of the EU despite voting 62% to remain, or the very real danger of a return to violence on the island of Ireland if a hard border is implemented. But the United Kingdom is a union of four countries, and one of these has also begun to flirt with the idea of independence.
Brexit is a constitutional question and crisis, and it has led to more discussion about the UK’s constitution than ever before. This in turn has led to a rising number of people describing themselves as ‘indy-curious’, or even full-blown supporters of independence in Wales. Within Wales, independence is being discussed more and more — but like with most Welsh news, this hasn’t reached UK-wide media. People in Wales, like in the rest of the UK, can see the current deadlock in Westminster, can see its complete inability to protect Wales from the effects of Brexit, and they are looking for other options. In particular, the current UK government’s reckless attitude towards a no deal Brexit is exacerbating the situation. Wales, with its large ports and huge agricultural industry, is considerably reliant on free trade with the EU. Leaving the single market and customs union, as favoured by the UK government, will devastate the Welsh economy.
Wales voted to leave the EU. It was by a margin as narrow as the UK as a whole (52.5%), but a vote to leave nonetheless. Now, however, there are signs that public opinion has shifted. In the recent European Parliament elections, ‘Remain’ parties won 42.4% of the vote, compared to the Brexit Party’s 32.5%. All four Welsh Labour candidates were also vocal supporters of Remain, and received 15.3%. So similarly to Scotland, Wales potentially faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against its will.
But that isn’t the only problem. Wales and the other devolved governments currently receive funding through the Barnett Formula, which ensures that when money is spent in England, the devolved nations also receive funding dependent on population size and how devolved a policy area is. This may sound fair but, due to its older population and higher poverty levels, Wales has been underfunded for many years. The nearly £5bn of EU funding Wales has received over the past 20 years has therefore been vital. The UK government has said it will replace these funds through a new Shared Prosperity Fund but, as Prime Minister, Theresa May refused to confirm that the Welsh Government would control its share. The Wales Office has, in fact, provided no information about how the fund will operate at all. A key part of devolution is the Welsh Government’s autonomy to spend money how it chooses, how it knows will be best for the people of Wales who elected it. A UK government based in London limiting these powers will only further the cause of nationalists and push Wales away.
Even within the Labour Party, it often appears that Welsh interests are not prioritised. During the 2017 General Election, then First Minister Carwyn Jones argued for the Barnett Formula to be scrapped — but the national party in response reiterated its support for the existing system. Now, pro-independence groups hold events at Welsh Labour conference. Labour is the party of devolution — we introduced it in the 1990s and in 2011 Welsh Labour held a referendum to seek permission from the Welsh people to increase the powers Wales could hold. Welsh Labour still stands up for the interests of Wales better than any other party. But the UK Labour Party and its slightly-less-ambiguous-but-still-not-exactly-clear Brexit policy are not helping. Wales needs to stay in the EU, and it needs the support of the UK Labour Party in campaigning for that. Brexit will be catastrophic for Wales, but a Brexit combined with further neglect from the UK government could split the union four ways rather than three.
Hollie Wickens is a member of The Fabian Society and The Labour Party.