Where next Welsh Labour? A response to a third place finish — Martin Drax
With the votes coming in from the European election, it has clearly been a disaster for our Party in Wales. We’ve lost every single Local Authority in Wales, we’ve come 3rd overall for the first time since universal suffrage. The only question is what we do about it now. Do we try and win back Brexit Party voters, or do we appeal to those we’ve lost to the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens?
There is a broad swathe of opinion in the Labour Party that wants to try and dodge this question. Their logic runs like this, if we can find a way to deliver the referendum without annoying Brexiteers or Remainers too badly we can move on to other things. This mostly resulted in contorting our party to find a socialist way to deliver Brexit. Our Brexit team laid out their “6 Tests for Brexit”, our 2017 manifesto pledged to “honour” the referendum by leaving the Single Market, and Lisa Nandy recently wrote eloquently in The Guardian on the “need to bring people together”.
Its fundamental premise is that Brexit must be delivered to preserve the trust of Leave voters in British politics/the Labour Party. The issue is that any Brexit that is consistent with our values of international co-operation and the rule of law would not be regarded by many Leave voters as meeting that trust.
Look at the reaction to Theresa Mays deal. That deal would have once been regarded as a “hard” Brexit, no Customs Union, no Single Market membership etc. Yet, May’s deal was hugely unpopular with Leavers, the Northern Irish backstop and payment of money owed being portrayed as somehow treacherous. Yet, it was more to their taste than any deal the Labour Party would offer at the moment. This suggests no compromise may not actually be possible with Leave voters on Brexit.
Let’s run through our plan as it stands. Let’s presume a Labour Government was elected this autumn and re-negotiated the deal, let’s presume it looks like the deal we demanded from May, May’s deal plus a Customs Union and dynamic alignment on workers’ rights (lot of ifs but let’s play it out), what happens? Well we’ll have tied a millstone around the neck of our first Government in almost 10 years. Leavers egged on by Farage would denounce it as not a “real” Brexit. The Lib Dems and Greens would argue that we were delivering a “Tory Brexit”. Our deal would end up rather like May’s — regarded as illegitimate by both sides.
This means that the only route forward for the Labour Party is to trust the instincts of our voters and members and back a referendum that pits a deal versus our current deal of staying in the EU and pitch towards the Greens/Lib Dems, even in areas that voted Leave most of our voters are Remain, and we can’t ignore that.
Yes, those who back no deal would be outraged, but they will be outraged by anything less than no deal — which we’ve always been clear that we oppose.
It will be divisive and unpleasant. But there is no way around the unpleasantness now, the country is bitterly divided and issuing Hallmark Card slogans about “coming together” is not going to change that. There is no route out of this Tory mess that will not alienate a big chunk of the country. Electorally the choice is between a confirmatory vote and leaving without a deal, morality and economics make it clear no deal would be a mistake, which means there is only one option left.
Or perhaps I’m wrong? But if I am then the people who oppose a confirmatory referendum need to be much clearer about our route forward. Bromides do not cut it anymore. If we are going to pander to Leavers what is the plan to deal with the Leavers who regard anything less than no deal as a betrayal? If we are going to ignore the wishes of Remainers, how will we convince them to trust us? If we are to reject a confirmatory vote, we need to do better than we have done going forward. Everything may depend on it.
Martin Drax is a member of the Labour Party in Gwynedd.