Without the M4 relief road, could Wales be on a “highway to hell”? — Leighton Jenkins

The Second Severn Crossing

So much has been said about the M4 relief road. First proposed in 1991, the case for the road only gets stronger as the problem of congestion has never been properly addressed. Wales has always been serviced by a substandard dual-carriageway which fails to meet motorway standards. The Black Route isn’t some grand road scheme but a badly needed repair job of a road that underpins 2/3rds of our nation’s GDP. Even those opposed to the Black Route accept that ‘something must be done,’ the problem is they can’t seem to agree on what that ‘something’ should be and while they dither, our economy suffers.

The good news is that all three of the candidates for the Welsh Labour leadership agree congestion on the M4 must be addressed. Two out of the three candidates go further and recognise a relief road must be built. Vaughan Gething AM is in favour of the Black Route, Eluned Morgan AM, while awaiting the conclusion of the independent public inquiry, pledges to honour the 2016 Welsh Labour manifesto to build a relief road. Mark Drakeford AM says clearly in his manifesto that “We will maintain our commitment to tackle congestion, particularly in areas such as on the… M4 in south Wales.” Sadly, Mr Drakeford has not outlined any alternative plan to tackle congestion.

Whoever becomes First Minister next week, they should first publish the results of the public inquiry, so everyone can make an informed and evidence-based decision. They should then take bold leadership and make the decision to deliver a Labour manifesto pledge and green light the Black Route.

The link between roads and economic growth

Before going into detail about the M4 around Newport, it is important to first highlight the link between better road infrastructure and economic growth. Business has long known the quality of transport infrastructure has a significant impact on investment decisions. The CBI infrastructure survey found 73% of businesses found tackling congestion on the road network as either ‘critical’ or ‘important’ to the future operation of their business. Successive Welsh governments have known this too. They tried quick fixes, but they have only postponed the inevitable. It is no wonder that 76% of businesses say addressing the congestion around Newport is now critical.

As Sir Rod Eddington stated in the landmark Eddington Report “There is clear evidence that a comprehensive and high-performing transport system is an important enabler of sustained economic prosperity.” He went on to say “It is an inescapable fact that the UK road network is the backbone of the UK economy: it is the dominant means of transport (73 per cent of passenger travel and 65 per cent of freight moved). Even over long distances, road dominates: for distances of above 200 miles, roads account for 87 per cent of journeys. This dominance should not be surprising: the car, van or lorry provides unrivalled flexibility in choice of route, time of travel and destination, and there are no realistic alternatives for some journeys. “

Eddington identified seven main ways road improvements impact economic growth. These were:

• Improved business efficiency, notably by travel time savings, improving journey time reliability and travel quality.
• Stimulating business investment and innovation by supporting economies of scale and new ways of working.
• Enhance economic Agglomeration which bring firms closer (in space or time) to other firms or workers in the same sector.
• Improved labour market efficiency, enabling firms to access a larger labour supply, and wider employment opportunities for workers and those seeking work.
• Increasing competition by opening access to new markets, principally by integration of world markets.
• Increasing domestic and international trade by reducing trading costs.

· Attracting globally mobile activity, by providing an attractive business environment and good quality of life.

Eddington went on to state that if unaddressed, the cost of congestion would cost the UK economy an extra £22 billion per year by 2025. The House of Commons Transport Committee’s exhaustive report into the links between the economy and transport supported this assertion, concluding with the following pronouncement: “it is clear to us that investment in the transport system remains a high priority in order to support economic growth. Congestion on road, rail and air networks remains a major constraint on growth.”

So, with the link between roads and the economy clear, why hasn’t the relief road already been built? The central problem is that we don’t see what doesn’t happen. The hard truth is that over the years, Wales has lost out on growth due to the sclerotic traffic around Newport. The congestion puts us at an automatic disadvantage to other parts of the UK. In this global race for jobs, time is money. Many Welsh firms have baked-in the additional cost of doing business — from hundreds of staff late for work to goods missing their delivery window. This cost is more than financial — if it costs more to run a business then less can go into investing in new opportunities or employing more people. Everyone loses. It has been going on for so long that we’ve almost forgotten that it doesn’t have to be this way.

What are the main problems with the M4?

The M4 is Wales’ strategic gateway to the rest of the UK and Europe yet in the last two years, this stretch of road has been forced to close over 100 times. At the moment, 100,000 vehicles travel on the M4 around Newport every day — considerably more during events like concerts and rugby matches. The road does not meet modern motorway standards, and this leads to poor air quality, increased vehicle emissions and accidents. Constrained by the oldest motorway tunnels in the UK, this critical stretch of road serves two-thirds of the Welsh population and over two-thirds of Welsh GDP.

Congestion already causes daily problems and it is destined to get much worse. By 2020 the Welsh Government predict ‘severe operational problems’ on junctions around Newport. With the Severn bridge tolls being removed from the 17th of December, congestion will increase because the popularity of the road has long outstripped its capacity. Toll removal is set to inject over £100m of economic activity into Wales in the years ahead. The problem is the Brynglas bottleneck, not the removal of the tolls.

In a globalised world with a Just-In-Time (JIT) economy, every minute matters and the M4 is plagued by unpredictable journey times. According to the World Bank, the average domestic transport time for UK exporters is 5 hours and costs £500. Any further increase to either of these figures would negatively impact our economic competitiveness. Around the Brynglas tunnels, it is not unusual for vehicles to be stuck for over an hour. In today’s world, many firms rely on meeting tight delivery windows or their businesses grind to a halt. The movement of these goods and materials has transitioned to rail where possible, but much of it has to continue to use our road network due to its comparative convenience and flexibility. With the emergence of autonomous road-based freight, the importance of roads will only increase.

Is the Black Route value for money?

Experts have spent years testing over 100 different options and their conclusion is the Black Route is the best option on the table to address the congestion around Newport. The route would deliver the following benefits:

- A state of the art, sustainable and future-proofed motorway, running for 14 miles parallel to the existing M4 and — critically — bypassing the two-lane Brynglas tunnels.

- The existing M4 can be reclassified, allowing those travelling on the road — including public transport — to get more quickly to Newport and all those living to the north of the city.

- Junction 25 (westbound) can be reopened, improving local access for communities like Caerleon and St Julians.

- New cycling and walking routes will be created.

- New access to ‘Park and Ride’ facilities will be created.

- The route will integrate with rail electrification and the Metro.

- Less than 2% of the Gwent levels will be built on and over half of the road would be built on contaminated or brownfield land. Habitats will also be enhanced. The number of draining channels will be increased which will convert wetland into useful and rich wildlife habitats.

The Economic Appraisal of the Black Route shows Wales would get back £2 for every £1 invested

The route presents value for money because the scheme costs will be more than offset by the improvements to transport economic efficiency, safety and lower carbon emissions. Even under a low-growth scenario the benefits of the scheme outweigh the costs with a Benefit-to-Cost Ratio of 1.33. Under a high growth scenario (more likely now, given the removal of the Severn bridge tolls) the Net Present Value increases to over £2bn and the benefit-to-Cost Ratio to 3.12.

If you include the wider impacts of the scheme, the investment becomes even more attractive. The Black Route would boost the benefits of agglomeration by reducing transport costs and time and improving accessibility between firms across the region. Newport’s ‘effective density’ would increase by 4%, Bridgend by 1.7% and Swansea by 0.7%.

GDP per worker would also increase, helping to tackle Wales’ low productivity levels. Newport’s GDP would be boosted by 8.8% by 2037, Bridgend’s by 1.6% and Swansea by 1%. The Black Route would spread the benefits of the road to all parts of South Wales. Over the appraisal period, net economic benefits are estimated to be over £700 million alone.

Some have pointed to claims that the relief road will also increase the GDP of Bristol and Gloucestershire. What people do not say is some of this ‘benefit’ is to do with those areas gaining a wider labour pool as the people of South Wales are more able to compete in the Bristol labour market. Furthermore, they will bring that salary home to Wales and spend it in the local economy. It is simply untrue to say Wales will not benefit most. By far the largest increase in GDP from the road will be felt in Newport. Cardiff, Swansea, Caerphilly, Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taff and Torfaen will all see increases to their GDP. This is why in 2016 over 58 of Wales’ leading firms signed an open letter to the Welsh Government calling on them to build the Black Route. Far from just representing South East Wales, West Wales based Bluestone and the Port of Milford Haven were signatories, so too were Rhondda based Penderyn Whisky.

Together with the Black Route, the removal of the tolls would allow Wales to offer a very attractive business environment for a range of sectors. The logistics and distribution sector, for example, is a growing part of the economy and brings with it a large among of new development and associated jobs. The relief road would pave the way for new business parks and housing. It could deliver a step change in growth along the entire M4 corridor.

What are some common misconceptions about the Black Route?

There are a number of misconceptions and false choices surround the M4. From the ‘blue route’ being a better alternative to the impact on the Gwent Levels. Here is why the Black Route is the only credible option on the table:

- The ‘blue route’

Three versions of the blue route were considered by experts and all were found to provide very little relief to congestion on the M4. This proposal consists of works to the existing Newport A48 Southern Distributor Road (SDR) and A4810, by ‘grade separating’ some existing at-grade junctions and closing some junctions. SDR and A4810 improvements were first assessed as part of a solution to the problems on the M4 around Newport in 2011 when a motorway solution was deemed to be unaffordable. Assessments here and here explained why these options were not preferable. The key findings were:

• All 3 scenarios would provide very little relief — M4 congestion would continue.

• All 3 scenarios would mix strategic and local traffic on a sub-standard road, replicating the situation on the existing M4 around Newport.

• Costs were assessed in 2013 as £600–800m. Costs would far exceed the benefits giving poor value for money.

• Local road junctions would need to be closed, causing severance and reduced accessibility in Newport.

• The limited transfer of traffic would mean the air quality and noise problems on the existing M4 would remain and worsen.

• Commercial and residential property demolition would be needed.

• Significant and prolonged disruption to Newport during construction.

As Paul Flynn MP said: “The Blue Route ‘solution’ would be worse for Newport than no change. It would destroy the function of the SDR by piling M4 traffic on to a route that’s already full to capacity at peak times.”

- The South Wales Metro

Of course, public transport modes like the South Wales Metro, trains and buses as well as cycling and walking will grow in importance, but a modern transport strategy requires all modes to work together and not understanding that has real implications for the future growth of our towns and cities. The Welsh Government has already committed £5bn to deliver the Welsh rail and Metro franchise, which will deliver a range of improvements including at least four trains per hour on the Core Valleys line.

The evidence that the metro could not address the problems on the M4 around Newport, only reducing motorway traffic by up to 5%. It is clear that we need the Metro, but we also need the M4 relief road. Even the London Assembly, which benefits from the unbeatable London Underground, recognise that cars ‘remain the most prevalent transport method used by Londoners.’ It is naive to think Wales can somehow manage without a functioning motorway.

Far from contradicting other transport options, the relief road complements other projects like rail electrification and the Metro. While modal shifts must be facilitated and encouraged, 90% of all freight continues to go by road and as a result, the road is likely to be the dominant form of transport for the foreseeable future. Studies have shown that major investment in improved public transport services would have only minimal impact on reducing traffic on the M4. Only 3% of journeys on the M4 around Newport are 5 miles or less. It is not an either/or decision — we need both.

- Closing Newport junctions

The other argument used is the problem is just local traffic. The majority of journeys are over 20 miles and a small number of journeys are less than 5 miles. The option of closing a number of junctions was considered during the inquiry. The closure of Junction 25 (Caerleon), Junction 26 (Malpas), and the complete closure of Junction 27 (High Cross) were assessed. The conclusion of the analysis of these options was none of these options would have a meaningful impact on congestion but congestion around the remaining junctions significantly increase. Taking these steps would reduce local air quality and deliver no economic benefits.

The reality is closing the junctions around Newport will have significant economic and traffic implications for the city’s residents and local businesses. As we saw with the temporary closure of Junction 41 of the M4 in Port Talbot the decision led to traffic ‘chaos’ leading the Welsh Government to quickly reopen the junction after the local economy began to suffer and over 20,000 people signed a petition. Let’s not repeat the same mistake again.

- The Gwent Levels

According to the Welsh Government’s own legal opinion, the relief road does not contradict the sustainability goals within the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act — one of which includes a prosperous economy that “generates wealth and provides employment opportunities.” Over half of the road would be built on contaminated or brownfield land and less than 2% of the Gwent Levels will be impacted by the relief road. Furthermore, new draining channels will be created, creating new arable land. The new bridge will also be built to avoid placing any piers in the wet channel avoiding adverse impacts on migratory fish, otters and other wildlife.

Self-driving vehicles will make roads more important

One of the emerging criticisms of the M4 relief road is a mischaracterisation that it’s an old-fashioned approach to the problem of congestion. The Future Generations Commissioner has called it “a 20th-century solution to a 21st-century problem.” Sadly, such statements are themselves based on outdated notions of what constitutes a mass transit system and are often informed more by an instinctive dislike of roads than by hard evidence.

With the emergence of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), the UK is on the verge of a transport revolution and those against the relief road will impede our participation in it. Initially, CAVs will reduce road capacity — not increase it — as 100% of the UK population are able to benefit from the flexibility and security offered by self-driving vehicles. Here are some facts about self-driving vehicles:

- Self-driving cars will increase road use by up to 70% by 2050

As the UK government laid out in Road Traffic Forecasts, far from removing the need for more roads, CAVs are predicted to increase road use by up to 70% by 2050. CAVs will empower 100% of the UK population to use the roads, boosting the personal mobility of millions of people, including the disabled and the elderly and those with no access to a privately-owned vehicle. This will liberate millions of people who, for a variety of reasons, are not served by conventional transport options. This is because, unlike current public transport, CAVs will be truly personal — on-demand and to-the-door. But even with the most optimistic roll-out, only 50% of CAVs are likely to be self-driving by 2050. In reality (due to the constraints outlined below) the number of CAVs on Welsh roads is likely to be far fewer than this.

- Truly self-driving vehicles will revolutionise the lives of millions of people

Imagine being able to just pull up an app on your iPhone and get a self-driving vehicle to take you anywhere you want to go. Safe, secure and available 24/7. The vehicle will drop you off at your destination and just drive itself away. You pay for the journey via the app. Ridesharing will be more common in this scenario as vehicle ownership and payment models adjust to this new way of getting from A to B. The very design of these vehicles will change substantially, with a selection of multi-seater and single-seater options being available to use on-demand. This is far in the future and the downside of giving 100% of the UK population unparalleled access to on-demand and to-the-door transport is a significant increase in road usage as self-driving vehicles will be an attractive alternative to commuting on trains and buses and will open the door to highly-automated road-based freight.

- Many technological challenges remain before self-driving cars become the norm

A great deal has to happen between now and the tipping point when self-driving vehicles are more than a novelty. Not only does CAV technology need to improve (the first level 5 truly autonomous are not available yet and CAV performance varies greatly under different weather and road conditions), but autonomous vehicles require a ubiquitous 5G network just to function and 5G has not been rolled out yet in the UK. Every part of Wales will need to have 5G coverage in order for fully autonomous vehicles to reach all corners of our nation. To achieve this level of coverage we will need to install 5G antennas ever 250 meters. Finally, if these CAVs are to be electric, a great deal needs to be done to improve battery technology and also install the right charging and recharging infrastructure throughout the road network.

With the number of cars on the road increasing every year, it is clear the trend over the coming decades will be a steady rise in convention vehicle use. Even with a fully functioning metro and train network, we still need a modern, functioning road network into 2050 and beyond. If the technological and practical barriers to self-driving vehicles are finally overcome, there will be a surge in road use as people benefit from a truly revolutionary improvement in mobility. Our road network will have to adapt to keep up with demand as well as meet the needs of this new technology. So, when we look at the future of transport in Wales, we need to accept that roads will not only remain a vital form of travel but dependency on roads will increase — not decrease — in the long-term. Roads are a critical part of our future transport needs.

You may respond to these arguments by saying devolution empowers us to do things differently, that we should chart a different course where everyone predominantly uses public transport. My response would be to think carefully before doing this. With the advent of autonomous vehicles, the very notion of what constitutes a mass-transit system is changing and — critically — England has adopted a CAV-focused approach. The UK government, through the Industrial Strategy is already spending tens of millions of pounds to help make CAVs a reality and integrate them into the road network, with road trials beginning soon in London and Edinburgh. Do we really want CAVs from England to be forced to stop at the Welsh border due to our out-dated infrastructure and approach to public transport? The UK market for connected and autonomous vehicles is forecast to be worth up to £52 billion by 2035. Not only will this change the way we travel, it will also drive major changes through a variety of sectors from manufacturing to insurance. Wales must not be left behind.

Funding

The Black Route is set to cost £1.3bn. This is excluding VAT but there is a well-established way for the Welsh Government recover the estimated £300m VAT costs. The UK government has already provided up to £1.3bn in borrowing powers (including an additional £300m in the last Budget). The Welsh Government could use this option to deliver the project. However, the government has put aside capital reserves to deliver the project while simultaneously allowing £500m of borrowing to fund Wales-wide transport schemes. With £5bn due to be spent on the Metro, it is hard to say that public transport is not seeing additional investment.

It also helps to put the cost in perspective. Scotland recently opened a new stretch of motorway, complete with a new bridge, at a cost of £1.35bn. The latest round of London Underground upgrades is pencilled in at £4.5bn, Thames Tideway Tunnel — £4.2bn and the dualling A303/A30/A358 corridor is £2.5bn.

We must remember there is a cost to not building the Black Route. If we had taken action in 1993 to build a relief road the cost would have been £271m-£330m. In 2008 the cost was £850m. Costs do not go down and the problem is only going to get worse. Will we regret not taking action in 2018 too?

The cost of not building the relief road extends to companies opting to relocate elsewhere or not supporting future waves of investment in their Wales based operations. This is painful, and no-one wants this to take place. However, if not action is taken to address congestion around Newport it is only a matter of time before we start to see this happen.

Conclusion

In a nutshell, these are some of the reasons why the Welsh Government needs to greenlight the £1.3bn Black Route:

- The M4 underpins 2/3rds of the Welsh economy

- Over 100,000 people rely on this road every day

- By 2020 the junctions around Newport will suffer severe operational problems

- The Black Route will return £2 for every £1 invested

- Only 2% of Gwent levels will be impacted

- The South Wales Metro alone won’t solve the problem

- The Blue Route will not work

- Closing the junctions around Newport will not work

- Self-driving vehicles will make the problem worse, not better

- The UK government has provided up to £1.3bn in borrowing to cover the costs

- £300m of VAT can be reclaimed through conventional means

Finally, for those who remain unconvinced, it must up to those who oppose the Black Route to first lay out their plan to tackle congestion on the M4. Kicking the Black Route into the long grass without putting forward a viable alternative would be an insult to the hundreds of thousands of people who depend on this motorway every single day, consigning them to years of delay and frustration on our nation’s main economic artery. As we head towards Brexit, neglecting “the gateway to Wales” would have major economic consequences.

Leighton Jenkins is the Assistant Director at CBI Wales.